港股勝經

以下小弟拙作，已於２００９年１２月２６日寄予好友．


尚有數天便踏入2010年,相信各位一直支持謙仔的客戶或好友,都在2009年大生大死的股海中撈番一筆,大部分更完全收復2008年金融海嘯的損失.失之東隅收之桑榆,是投資股票的至理名言.錢,可以輸;信心,卻不可失.如果在2009年初抱着剛輸完大錢、而不敢順應趨勢勇敢入市的心態,結果只有眼白白看着股市一直上升,羡慕別人大賺而氣結自己買得太遲.

港股在2009年呈上升趨勢,原因係2008年底跌幅太大,太多股票被不理性地拋售,導致「錯價」,因此反彈數倍至十倍亦理所當然.這一年,只要够膽持貨便會贏到笑.然而,這種方法在2010年不再奏效.謙仔估計,港股在2010年將不斷呈W型走勢,即係會上落市格局,因為港股受到歐美退市、內地收水以及加息等大方向左右.若桄榔樹一條心持有股票,很可能錯失多次賺差價機會.反而,宜多採取斬邊食邊及且戰且退策略,盡享波幅的沖刷.

謙仔並非專家,無法精確估計明年恒指的高、低位,只借助過往數據作出推測.不過,有一點可以肯定的是,明年股市係進入強者年代,市場資金不再是炒跌得低殘的公司,而係真真實實地買入有實質盈利增長和秀麗前景的股份.具有行業龍頭地位,或者定位獨特、毛利率領先同業的股份會跑出.

根據舊同事PERRY的提點以及謙仔的分析,新能源、科技、內需和內房四大行業明年可看高一線.謙仔在每個行業精挑了膽、腳各一隻股份,希望它們不負眾望,在2010年傲視同儕,成為大家的搖錢樹.

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港股升跌展望

若由過去四次港股股災後翌年走勢數據推斷,明年恒生指數有75%機會上升,但升幅可能只有10%.由80年代初至千禧科網泡沬爆破的二十年間,港股出現了四次股災,當中只有87股災期間没有出現經濟衰退,其餘三次股災皆與衰退有關(見下表),因此可作為2010年港股較有力的啟示.

表：　熊市觸底後市盈率估值變化
低谷後十個月 之後十個月
高峰 低谷 反彈幅度 市盈率變幅 反彈幅度 市盈率變幅
11/1980 8/1982 59% 48% -6% -18%
8/1987 12/1987 21% 5% 32% 27%
7/1990 10/1990 31% 42% 8% 1%
3/2000 10/2000 26% 26% 9% -6%
10/2009 3/2009年 55% 32% ? ?
注:5次熊市中,只有87股災期間未出現經濟衰退 資料來源: BLOOMBERG


1982年股災除了經濟問題,同時亦係香港前途談判未卜而衍生的信心危機,現在港人對中央信心爆棚,與二十多年前真係天淵之別.因此,若以90年及00年股災後走勢,推斷港股明年上升幅度,相關性更大.該兩次股災後翌年,港股升幅分別只有8%及9%,因此謙仔推算,明年恒生指數只有一成升幅,若以12月24日收市價21517點計,最高可升至23700點.

以現價計,恒指市盈率高達23倍,貴過歷史平均數16倍.外資大行均估計,明年藍籌股的盈利增長介乎15至20%.如果港股指數不變,屆時市盈率會降至大約19倍,雖比歷史平均數貴,但仍屬合理. 不過,多年來,港股有一個搖擺特性,就係通常偏離合理價20%,即係升會升突20%,跌亦會超跌20%.若如此,港股有機會升至27000的偏高水平,至於底部,則有機會見18000點.高低位約九千點,最適合炒波幅.

謙仔認為,2010年係港股固本培元的一年,大家都經歷了2008及2009年死過番生滋味,2010年不再係激情主導,而係回歸本位睇基本因素,盈利和前景佳的股票自然成為股市領頭羊,率先為2011年以後的另一個大牛市做熱身,而大牛市亦會接踵誕生,而最有機會在新能源、內需、科技和內房版塊出現,且看謙仔推介的八大心水會否成為大牛股．

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新能源
龍源電力(916)
龍源作為風力發電龍頭股,除了受惠中央扶持和持續出台的補貼政策,相信在環保板塊泡沬愈吹愈大的2010年中可脫穎而出,成為市場馬首是瞻的行業火車頭.值得留意的是,每當石油、煤炭等傳統資源價格飆升之時,替代能源的炒作藉口便愈高.

優點:
1.全亞洲最大風力發電商
1.國策支持
2.港股中没無同級數股票,不少基金「被迫」買入
3.很大機會納入MSCI指數
缺點:
1.估值偏高: 現價係2009年估計PE的75倍,2010年預測PE亦高達40倍.
2.質地未純: 2009年風力發電佔收入僅37%,2010年風電產能才逾收入50%.
目標價: 15元(現價10.08元) 潛在升幅: 49%

保利協鑫(3800)
2009年由小型環保發電商轉型太陽能上游業務多晶硅業務.以多晶硅產能計,協鑫不但是港股同業的龍頭,也是內地一哥,並攀升上全球第三大的寶座.

優點:
1.剛獲中投斥資50億元入股20%,成為第二大股東,可視為半隻國企股.
2.多晶硅生產成本每公斤35美元,平通全國,並追近國際水平.
3.多晶硅售價由去年的200餘美元跌至目前的50至60美元,憧憬明年需求恢復,售價將觸底回升.
4.未來將與中投合作投資其他太陽能中、下游業務,實現太陽能產業一條龍.
缺點:
1.行業被中央評為產能過剩.
2.需為2009年中的注入多晶硅業為商譽作大幅撥備90億,影響2009年盈利.
3.多晶硅需求未如預料般上升,以及價格持續向下.
目標價: 4元(現價2.14元) 潛在升幅: 87%

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內需
春天百貨(331)
12月才上市的春天被視為主攻貴價貨的「升呢」百貨股。春天已在國內８個省份擴張零售網絡至１７家店, 由於高端至奢侈品打折較少的特性，公司特許銷售佣金率０８至０９上半年基本穩定在２０﹒５－２１﹒０％，自營毛利率同期穩定於約２２﹒５－２３﹒０％。經營利潤率從０８年的４０﹒１％升至０９上半年的４６﹒３％，略低於０９年金鷹（３３０８）的５１％，但高於百盛(３３６８)的３８％。
優點：
1.大股東陳氏家族經營寶姿(589)業績及股價表現有目共睹.寶姿2003年以2.625元上市(曾一拆四),股價迄今上升九倍, 若計及多年來派息,股價累積升幅超過十倍.陳氏家族的生意能力獲得基金大戶的認可,相信春天亦倍受器重.
2.主力在二線城市,增長潛力巨大.
3.上市後公司持淨現金13億元,財務穩健兼有併購實力.
缺點:
1.現價已是2009年預測市盈率的40倍.
2.外國名牌收回品牌代理權自行經營.

目標價: 4元(現價2.66元) 潛在升幅: 50%


恒安國際(1044)
內地紙尿片及衛生巾龍頭,多年來盈利保持高速增長,加上穩定派息,已成為基金愛股,市值(696億元)超越了同是做內需的藍籌股華創(291;648億元).恒安股價近年穩步上升,已屬有買貴冇買錯之列.

優點:
1.預期09至11年收入分別增長31%、21%及14%.
2.去年原材料低企時大量入貨,09年毛利率增至19.4%.
3.08年底收購的親親食品擴大銷售網絡,預料食品的收入佔總生意額的比例,由09年上半年的9.8%,逐步增加至2010至2011年的20%,由於食品業務毛利率高達38%,相信可帶動整體盈利增長.
4.2010年1月起,每手股數由一千減至五百,變相一拆二,有炒作藉口.

缺點:
1.現價市盈率高達49倍.
2.原材料價格急升,拖累毛利.

目標價: 75元(現價57.10元) 潛在升幅: 31%

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內房
年近歲晚,中央落重藥打擊內地樓市.內地經濟起飛,估計中央難以遏止樓價上升,因為若過份遏抑,地方政府收入勢受嚴重影響.所謂「上有政策、下有對策」,內地樓市在2010年走勢係「壓中有保」.

內房走勢往往係升到你唔信,跌到你驚,例如在12月初開始的跌市中,大部分內房股下挫兩至三成,就係撈貨好機會.龍湖地產(960)和越秀地產(123)可在2010年跑贏同業.

龍湖地產(960)
剛上市的龍湖,並未受港股和內房頽氣拖累而「潛水」,可見實力之雄厚,原來,公司盈利能見底冠全行,目前已鎖定了2009及2010年銷售目標的100%及64%.

優點:
1.現價較資產淨值12.9元大幅折讓38%,估值吸引.
2.擁有2196平方米建築面積的土地儲備,足够未來三年開發.
缺點:
1.未來向一線城市發展,由於地皮昂貴,或需要更多資金.
2.上市時間短,乏往績參考.
目標價: 13元(現價8.65元) 潛在升幅: 50%

越秀地產(123)
擾攘多年,越秀終於由綜合股轉型至內房股,成為廣州市政府的窗口地產公司.作為地區性內房股,越秀擁有700萬平方米土地儲儲,不及同級的北京市政府旗下的首創置業(2868)的1100萬平方米.不過,越秀的土儲大部分是早年買入,呎價成本十分便宜,賣樓的利錢將非常豐厚.
優點:
1.聚焦內房業務,被市場重新估值.
2.每股NAV高達6.6元,現價大折讓67%,可算「蔗渣價錢、燒鵝味道」.
3.2009年首11月個銷售合約金額,已超越全年目標35%.
缺點:
1.發展商2009年銷量飆升,若中央重手打壓,有機會窒礙成交量,部分地產商可能重現減價促銷.
2.股價仍低於97年高峰的4.5元,蟹貨未悉數消化,成為上升跘腳石.

目標價: 4元(現價2.22元) 潛在升幅: 80%

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科技
阿里巴巴(1688)
全球科技每十年一大變,科網泡沬經過了10年,2010又係新時代降臨,新科技股王誔生之時也.見證2007年泡沬爆破的阿里巴巴,今年踏入收成期,公司擁有64億元淨現金,可在今年進行大型併購或加強與母公司淘寶網的合作,為股價注入動力.

優點:
1.2009年起大幅減價搶客,令其在內地B2B市場佔有率由07年的70%擴大至09年
第三季的80%,隨着中國出口恢復元氣,公司利潤在2010年起止跌回升.
2.估計2010至2011年純利增長分別高達85%和50%.
3.更多收購和憧憬加強與母公司的合作.

缺點:
1.現價市盈率高達62倍.
2.會員人數及收入增長遜預期.

目標價: 25元(現價16.88元) 潛在升幅: 48%


浪潮國際(596)
2009年跑輸大市,但2010年將會係老虎出押.浪潮具國企背境,近年靠母公司不斷注資壯大,預料行動不會停止,母公司會於合適時機繼續湊大浪潮.

優點:
1.現價往績市盈率僅10倍,低於同業.
2.預期2009年盈利增長20%,市盈率將跌至單位數.
3.持現金10億元,並無借貸,有充裕資金收購母公司優質資產.
4.微軟(MICROSOFT)持有集團優先股,若悉數行使,將佔25%股權,變第二大股東.

缺點:
1.合共1.4億股換股價低於1角的認股權證,由於已悉數行使,2009年股價跑輸大市很可能是部分認股權行使後於市場沽出,令股價受壓.
2.股價走勢往往不跟隨大市,較難捉摸.

目標價: 1.6元(現價1.07元) 潛在升幅: 50%



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另外,農業股中的中糧(606)、煤炭股龍頭神華(1088)和出口股利豐(494),亦有機會在2010年大幅跑贏大市.而本港中、小型地產股嘉華國際(173)和百利保(617)的業績,亦會令市場驚喜.若有閒錢,不妨望多幾眼,炒番兩轉.

2010年除了跟大方向買股,抄小徑冷吼有分拆或注資的細價股,亦會有意想得到的收穫.AV CONCEPT(595)、新昌營造(404)、新昌管理(2340)及九洲(908)要緊盯,隨時成為脫繮野馬.由於這類股仔由醖釀至起動並非一蹴而就,最新消息可留意謙仔投資BLOG股壇衝鋒車(http://himsonlee.blogspot.com)的貼市推介.

最後,祝大家在2010年一本萬利,贏完再勝,更重要的是身體健康,合家平安.


註 : 上文所有數據, 均以24/12/2009收市價計算.

南灣賣天價 百利保發新年財

1. 政府12月28日拍賣兩塊白石地皮,市場估計呎價達8000元,我就更樂觀,認為以信和為首的財團會以意頭價8800元搶下地皮.資金泛濫、通脹快臨加上供應短缺,樓市泡沬明年一定吹得更大,因此,就算唔買樓都要買定啲地產股壓歲.

2.買股當買龍頭,誠哥(001)、郭氏(016)及大好友(083)絕對係首選,不過,由於前兩者每手成本動輒近十皮嘢,對資金有限的投資者而言是難吃到的葡萄,所以,今次不妨扒冷,吼城中著名孤寒財主羅旭瑞旗下的百利保(617).

3.多謝家住南區的好友泰利提點,原來百利保蟄伏15年的鴨脷洲地皮,終於修成正果,明年派完利市後立即應市,睇嚟呢舖羅旭瑞可淨袋幾倍利潤.

4.1995年,百利保以大約2.3億元在賣地場上搶下該地皮,期後金融風暴和沙士,羅旭瑞幾乎清袋破產,尤幸呢啲孤寒財主始終爛船三分釘加上够厚面波不斷向債主HSBC拖帳,終於畀條老油條捱過人生最痛苦的十年.俗語有云,大難不死必有後福,羅財主可藉南灣賣出天價,食番舖滿胡.

成本呎價四千賣萬八

5.百利保陷財困的日子,羅財主醒目地引入咗新地(佔南灣權益35%及嘉里(683,佔權益35%),百利保雖然只佔30%,但呢條PLACE認真和味.終所周知,新地賣樓比同業享有10至20%的溢價,歸根究柢係新地樓質素數一數二,加上擅於將平平無奇的樓盤包裝「升呢」.怪不得新地賣樓阿頭雷霆誇下海口,南灣呎價要賣1.8萬元.即係話,高於同區二手樓近兩倍.

6.雷爺往績絕對可信,倚巒,天璽固然賣到超高價,連位處元朗「山卡啦」的葡萄園亦賣到6000元呎,真係要寫個「服」字畀佢.

7.翻查資料,該盤多年來才落成,原來係同政府周旋多年才落實地積比率和建築圖則.地價雖然廉宜,但發展成本卻高達60億.新地過往賣平民化新盤純利率介乎20至25%,豪宅則高達30至40%,南灣以豪宅包裝及天價推售,利潤率有機會賺兩倍.有數得計,3億地價,以建築面積18萬呎計,每呎地價僅1300元,加埋豪宅建築成本,每呎約2500元,即使計埋利息開支,南灣每呎總成本只有4000元.賣1.8萬元呎,利錢之豐厚真係不可想像.

一舖賺三十億超市值

8.對市值逾千億的新地和數百億的嘉里而言,南灣的利潤對盈利貢獻所佔比例不大,但對市值只有24億的百利保嚟講,簡直係猶如中六合彩.粗略及保守估計,百利保在喺南灣一役勁賺30億,多過佢市值.

9.截至08年底,百利保每股NAV值4.7元,現價2.41元,大折讓近半,若計及南灣和其他資產今年來升值至少三成計,百利保最新NAV起碼值6至7元,現價可謂超級低殘.

10.百利保07年底曾供股,供股價0.21元,一年後十合一,即係羅旭瑞的供股成本係2.1元,有咗南灣呢枝盈利大補針打底,以佢孤寒貪心風格,供股唔賺一倍點會收貨.

11.現價2.41元上車,升破52周高位2.49加一注,去到3元才考慮斬邊食邊,餘下的就讓利潤滾存.

12.虎年發新年財,百利保係低風險高回報選擇.

爆廠徵兆樣樣有 現代美容莫沾手

母子齊玩變身 長盈金科有戲

谷注資 九洲快爆上

翻兜浪潮 押注協鑫

超市股港佳 劃破黑夜長空

天寒地凍 食德興火鍋

券商賣盤潮 炒英皇南華

1.繼大福證券(665)證實洽售控股權後,另一土炮券商天行聯合之母公司天行國際(993)又有意賣枱,華資券商賣盤潮將連珠炮發,券商股板塊快掀大升浪.

2.早在今年初,亨達(111)已易主國企信達,現在連老彤都肯賣大福,相信與對方(盛傳係建設銀行旗下之建銀國際、工行以及內地第二大券商海通齊齊ＢＩＤ)肯出高價有莫大關係.事關,老彤買嘢肯定係筍價先出手,賣出的肯定係好價.與此同時,估計天行亦係畀大陸佬睇上,控權易手快水到渠成.

3.若說大陸佬買香港豪宅成潮流,倒不如說北水買起香港證券行更加潮爆.本港券商中,時富(510)及敦沛(812)都係姿色平庸之輩,盈利能力差得不值一晒,反而英皇證券(717)及南華證券(619)可密切留意,兩間公司的老闆楊生及吳生,均係股壇猛人,若說他們是香港股壇的西毒東邪,亦不為過.

4.既然升浪初起,應暫不設止賺位.LET THE PROFIT RUN!

紙股遺珠 群星拱照

生果日報(11/11/2009)

曾淵滄專欄：提防明年出現新泡沫

我在城大教管理科學22年，可是甚麼是管理科學，許多人都不知道，因此，我決定開免費講座。本星期五下午6時半在城大第18室講座，我將主講「管理科學與投資」，對象是中學生的家長，歡迎參加。馬時亨與柯清輝真本事，傳媒一宣佈他們兩人擔任中策集團（235）的正副主席，這隻股股價馬上成為升市冠軍，一日之內上升78%。近來，恒指在高價徘徊，但是不少藍籌股股價卻無力創之前的高位，倒是不少二三線股開始出現像中策這樣的炒名人效應，這很有點類似1999年至2000年的時代，當時就出現多家上市公司因名人加盟而使到股價一日之內上升1倍以上。現在，歷史重演，這也意味着股市也開始在醞釀泡沫。10月31日《蘋果日報》主辦投資講座，當時我就建議大家明年得留意一個新的泡沫就快形成，這個泡沫就是環保與新能源。實際上，今年年中已經有人嘗試炒起前能源股、環保股，溫總也曾經潑過冷水，說擔心產能過剩。但是，新能源與環保概念股依然吃香，有部份炒過頭者正在整固，而新的新能源股、環保股則源源不斷地產生，其中多數是買殼變身股；有少部份是將原有行業延伸到新能源，最近的一家就是群星紙業（3868）。

群星闢新業務可加分

群星原本經營裝飾紙，近日開發新業務，買下內蒙古一家風力發電廠，但不能算是變身，而是擴大業務。變身股的利潤前景如何，投資者不容易掌握，只能聽管理層的預測，預測準備與否，不知道。因此，儘管變身股往往在變身之後股價急升1倍以上，但是，風險也相對上升。群星紙業擴大業務，新業務將使到原有的營業額增加大約20%，換言之，造紙的本行繼續經營，這也保證了未來的業務與盈利。群星往績PE 7.5倍，不算貴，加上新業務，應該會更好。近來，彤叔看來有意取代四叔的股神位置，不斷地出現在新股的推介會上，繼恒大地產（3333）、金沙中國（1928）之後，昨日又出場支持花樣年（1777）。2007年，有四叔出場的新股必然獲高倍的認購額，現在四叔專心搞地產，輪到彤叔出盡風頭，暫時而言，跟着彤叔買新股應該不會錯。

現金超市值 天地數碼抵買

1. 天地數嗎(500)於11月3日公布,出售有線電視機頂盒業務予美國科技巨挈思科,預期收益為3.3億元,當中
1.22億元用作發展有線電視雙向改造及數字電視應用程式支援系統及軟件,餘下2.08億元用作一般營運資金。雖然該筆款項在未來四年分段收取,但出售資產令公司錄得2.73億元盈利。

2.突然出售主業(中期報告未有提供機頂盒營業額佔數碼廣播業務的具體比例),緣於機頂盒業務近年競爭激烈,導致收入下降,將之脫手套回現金不失為良策.重要的是,與買家思科建立起良好關係,為未來發展有線電視雙向改造及數碼電視應用程式支援系統及軟件,提供了「軟、硬」彈藥.

3.消息公布後,天地數碼股價一度升至0.78元高位,但隨後兩日急跌至0.495元,周五見反彈收報0.53元,此際上車坐和望贏,原因有三.

4.變現金王:截至今年6月底止,公司持淨現金4億元,即每股淨現金已達0.35元.出售機頂盒套回3.3億元,不但淨現金增至7.3億,每股淨現金也增至0.64元,已超越0.53元的股價和6億元的市值.

5.後台較硬:天地數碼大股東是持股20.88%的北京中信集團，06年注入資產收取新股的作價高達2.85元，現價是中信入股價的兩折;第二大股東亦大有來頭,是佔股權15.4%的美國摩托羅拉，3年前分別以1.2元及1.5元入股，現價亦坐艇。

6.未來憧憬：內地數碼電視廣播在未來五年，將有總值逾萬億元的商機，持有大量現金的天地數碼可憑豐富的行業經驗，以及兩大股東的支持，成為國策受惠者．不排除天地數碼未來會利用現金，向大股東收購優質資產或者併購同業壯大實力．

７．現價０．５３元上車，可謂坐和望贏，目檟係賺１倍．先以０．７８元為首個目標價，升破向１元進發．

工業股翻生 震雄非買不可

上滿電 ＧＰ破頂

吳老闆抖氣 輪到JUNO老竇

半新股神冠 肉腸冚珍珠

Quoted from SCMP dated 31 Oct 2009

Shenguan hopes business sizzles

German statesman Otto von Bismarck once remarked that laws are like sausages - it is better not to see them being made.

While politicians are still making unsightly laws, companies such as Shenguan Holdings (Group) are finding sausages a prettier proposition. Indeed, for Shenguan, the humble snack food is finally proving a money-spinner after some hard years.

The former state-owned factory that produces the rubbery skins for sausages of all types has a market capitalisation of HK$7.34 billion following an initial public offering in Hong Kong last month.

The company is hoping sausages, considered by most to be a Western invention, will become just as popular as pot noodles as a quick snack on the mainland.

To be sure, Shenguan produces a lot of casings - enough of the material to stretch 13 times around the globe each year.

On paper, the Guangxi-based company appears to be another mainland enterprise that has simply borrowed foreign technology to produce for the mass market.

研發膠原卅年

However, the group has actually invested in collagen casing technology for 30 years. It has two wholly owned subsidiaries, Shenguan Biological and Shensheng Jiaoyuan, involved in everything from the construction of factories to production and research.

As Bismarck quipped, sausage-making is not for the faint-hearted. A strong material is needed to hold the filling in when the sausage is thrown into a pan or on to a barbecue.

Apart from collagen, cellulose and plastic are often used in the making of sausage casings. Collagen, the main protein in the connective tissues of animals, can be broken down and reconstructed again in different forms using an industrial process.

The use of collagen in food processing has increased as it is more hygienic and cheaper than using the intestines of animals - the traditional material used for sausages. Higher-quality and pricier collagen is often used in cosmetic surgery and medical science.

Shenguan uses only beef proteins to produce its casings, with the particular type of casings based on whether the sausages are instantly edible or if they need to be cooked. But in recent years, there have been technological advances in the manufacturing of pure pork collagen, considered safer than beef casings.

British sausage casings manufacturer Devro was the first to introduce pork protein casings three years ago, which can reduce the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, directly related to beef.

Sausage casings makers worldwide are facing increasing costs and demand from meat processors for cheaper products.

門檻高競爭少

Shenguan chairman Zhou Yaxian said the barrier to entry was relatively high and there were no big competitors on the mainland at present. Shenguan's Western-style sausage casing products cost between 33 and 46 fen per square metre - lower than rival imports, it said.

At present, Shenguan's collagen sausage casings business depends almost entirely on mainland consumption of "Western-style" sausages, including cocktail sausages, frankfurters, salami, hotdogs and chicken sausages.

Last year, 87.1 per cent of the group's revenue came from making these sausages and 12.9 per cent from producing casings for Guangdong-style dried sausages.

Mainland consumers, who are now buying more high-quality food products such as milk and processed meat, are behind growing consumption of sausages.

"The Western-style sausages are really a new thing in China, especially among younger people," Zhou said.

將取代杯麵 成即食品新貴

She believes sausages will become more popular on the mainland and could replace pot noodles as the preferred convenience food.

Last year, the mainland consumed about 374,220 tonnes of processed meat products including sausages, an annual compound growth of 12.74 per cent from 205,450 tonnes in 2003, according to Access Asia, a research company.

Following its listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, Shenguan increased its production lines to 116 from 106, taking its capacity to 2.42 billion metres of collagen casings. A further 50 lines will be added by next year, ensuring a minimum increase of 40 per cent in production capacity.

管理層製腸經驗豐

The factory runs 24 hours a day with more than 1,400 employees working in three shifts. Zhou joined the then state-owned Wuzhou Protein Factory as a technician in 1979.

"We could not choose what we wanted to do at the time," said Zhou, now 49. "I was sent by the authority to work in a laboratory in the factory after finishing college."

Zhou described the laboratory as tiny, with not many facilities. But the government was keen to develop its protein-manufacturing business.

Her first job was to remove the hair from the cattle's skin, which was then divided into layers and taken away for disinfection.

Making collagen requires processing of the inner skin of cattle. Roughly, a tonne of cattle skin can produce 80,000 to 100,000 metres of collagen casings. Only by trial and error over eight years did the factory finally have some success in producing the casings.

The collagen fibre from the inner skin is extracted by applying pressure, which transforms it into a dough. It is then sent into an extrusion machine to form tubular casings that are then dried. The casings then have to be reshaped at 70 to 80 degrees Celsius before packaging can take place.

"Initially, the casings were too thin," said Zhou. "We started testing again to see if we could make something that had just the right strength."

In 1989, the factory had a breakthrough when two machines bought from Poland helped standardise the casings and speed up the manufacturing process.

But Zhou and her colleagues found that the machines were not compatible with their feedstock, so they decided to construct their own machines based on the Polish models. It was not until 1995 that the production was finally trouble-free.

虧損國企MBO

"The factory was making losses all along," said Zhou. "It couldn't have survived if the government wasn't backing it up financially."

The company had several ownership changes, going from a state-run firm to being partly listed on the mainland from 1997 to 2000.

It returned to state ownership before becoming a private company in 2004, when business started to take off. That year, two key customers, Low Jee Keong, a Malaysian, and Wei Cheng, an American, bought the factory for 75 million yuan (HK$85.13 million) at an auction organised by the state government.

Zhou, who was made head of the factory in 1992, became a shareholder the same year and Wuzhou Shenguan was born. "I didn't want to give up," she said. "We had come a long way and it was special for me."

Even with the additional investment in expanded production, Zhou said it would be difficult for the company to meet growing demand for its products.

Last year, Shenguan sold 1.04 billion metres of casings, an annual compound growth of 51.7 per cent from 454.4 million metres of casings in 2006. Its top clients include Hong Kong-listed China Yurun Food Group from Nanjing and the country's largest meat processor, China Shuanghui Group.For the first half, Shenguan sold 783.7 million metres of casings.

The company raised HK$1.43 billion from a listing last month, attracting investment from China Life Insurance, a cornerstone investor that holds US$12 million worth of shares

吳老闆技癢 撩㷫南華系

LED生意滔滔 峻凌高處未算高

北京發展 嘟得起

Quoted from the Standard dated 22 Oct 2009


One stock that lost HK$400 million in market valuation last year is worth a fresh appraisal. Beijing Development (Hong Kong) (0154) provides smart-card systems in the capital. Its biggest shareholder is Beijing Enterprises (0392), the business arm of the municipal government.

Beijing Development has issued more than 25 million cards, through which around 14 million transactions are conducted daily on public transport and in hotels and convenience stores.

The capital's finance bureau provided Beijing Municipal Administration & Communications Card, a Beijing Development unit, with a 100 million yuan (HK$113.5 million) subsidy for card settlement handling charges. But because BMAC has yet to conclude a profit- sharing agreement with bus and subway operators, it has not contributed any profit.

This explains why Beijing Development is making a loss despite despite having a well-developed smart card system. Dr Check believes a deal can be reached in the future. When this happens, Beijing Development will see profits.

The stock has fallen from HK$5 in 2007 and now hovers between 90 HK cents and HK$1.40, closing at HK$1.15 yesterday. Its downside should be limited as the net asset value per share is HK$1.17.

自動系統 自動曝光

Meditech picture of good health

Quoted from the Standard dated 20 Oct 2009

In recent years some of the better companies to list on Hong Kong's Growth Enterprise Market have migrated to the main board after failing to lure enough investor attention.One such firm is Golden Meditech (0801), which stands to benefit from China's growing health-care sector.

Meditech makes autologous blood recovery machines and disposable blood processing chambers. It also operates the mainland's first cord blood bank.

For the year ended March 31, Meditech had a turnover HK$498 million, up 18 percent year on year. Gross profit margin stood at a relatively high 71 percent.

醫療服務一條龍

Following the acquisition of Daopei Hospitals Group, the firm became a one-stop health-care provider.

Beijing's one-child policy and an increased public awareness of the benefits of stem cells will continue to help the cord blood bank division.

9650億醫改商機

China has earmarked 850 billion yuan (HK$965 billion) to revamp the national health-care system over the next three years.

The stock peaked at HK$4.80 in 2007. At yesterday's closing price - HK$1.38 - it looks reasonable.

I must mention yesterday's suggestion - Chuang's International (0367) - soared 14.5 percent. I hope this is enough to convince investors to hold on to the property firm.