2010年9月16日

樓價實質貴過97年五成

Dizzying heights 樓市發高燒 小心高山症

When the going gets tough If you are trekking in the highlands of Tibet or Peru and begin to suffer symptomsof altitude sickness, you can choose to move to a lower elevation or continue andpossibly die. We believe the Hong Kong property market is entering a state of altitude sickness and must consolidate in the coming 12-15 months during whichwe expect to see an 8-20% price downside.

Many market commentators cite the fact that the Centaline City Index (CCI) is 20% below the peak of 1997 as a reason that the residential market is still healthy and prices have room to rise. We believe the index has been used improperly. The reality is that mid- to high-end property prices are 35-50% higher than the 1997 peak. Mass properties are almost as expensive as a ratio to median household income. Meanwhile, the luxury rental yield is at a historical low of 1-2%.

The myth of demand 供不應求係幻覺

With the 2009 completion of residential units at a record low of 7,000 units and overall vacancies at 4.4%, there is an impression of a supply shortage, particularly of large units. We believe this impression to be false. Ironically,vacancies for large units (Class D&E) have actually risen from 8.8% to 10.52% y-y, re-affirming that this is a liquidity-driven market that is vulnerable to any outflow or change in investor preference.

Government fights the liquidity tide We believe that government action will do no more than slow down the pace of the property-price increase. More measures in the area of Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) resumption or mandating the Urban Redevelopment Authority(URA) to build smaller homes will satisfy the politicians, but increasing land supply could soak up developers’ cash and speed up future supply.

Quoted from Trevor Cheung BNP

3 則留言:

股海神針 說...

謙仔,

Where you paste from? Or is it your own opinion? Anyway, totally agree with it.

謙仔 說...

哈哈, 只係摘錄自大行報告. 你若有興趣睇全文, 畀個電郵我.

股海神針 說...
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