2010年10月13日

大淡友轉軚 薦5超級通脹受惠股

向來係股市大淡友(幾個月前估港股會跌至一萬六千點)的DBS唯高達證券研究部主管張一鳴,本周二發表轉軚報告,指全球大印銀紙,勢必引發超級通脹,港股易升難跌,佢推介5隻贏家股,以及建避開幾隻輸家股;

淡友急轉彎,司空見慣,佢預測準唔準,真係信不信由你啦.

以下是原文
• Escalating risk of a super-inflation era under competitive
currency debasement environment

• Any material Rmb appreciation worsens global inflation.

• Further deterioration in Japanese economy plus reemergence
of Euro debt crisis may cause high volatility in USD
and then Hang Seng Index

Top picks in inflationary environment are Yanzhou Coal
(1171), Angang Steel (347), China Merchant Bank
(3968), China Resources Land (1109 HK), Bank of China
Hong Kong (2388) and Swire Pacific (19)


• Key losers are China Southern Airlines (1055), Geely
(175), Yue Yuen (551), China Communication
Construction (1800), China South Locomotive (1766)
and TPV (903)

港股兩大上升引擎

Two forces driving Hang Seng Index to highest level since
Lehman crisis. We believe liquidity will remain excessive before
US mid-term election in November, which has been the
trigger for material USD depreciation and Rmb speculation.
Hang Seng Index has rebounded 13% vs 11% US S&P
rebound and 7% USD Index decline since end August. China
is also under increasing pressure to appreciate Rmb, which has
created excitement toward A-share market and in turn
supported Hang Seng Index.

Competitive currency debasement. Currency intervention by
various governments has become explicit and continued to
expand, which may cause inflation to rise sharply and
suddenly despite weak global economic fundamentals. We
continue to believe Rmb appreciation would not help improve
US trade deficits with other emerging markets being the
beneficiaries. The stronger Rmb will translate into strong
emerging market currencies that will push up global inflation.
We believe the Rmb exchange rate changes may disappoint
many in the next few years.

Governments likely behind the curve. Before Hang Seng Index
starts pricing in material tightening, stock market will likely
continue to be well supported by super-inflation expectation.

1 則留言:

張無忌 說...

呢條友得啖笑算了.